How NumeralQ Estimates Home Improvement Costs

An overview of NumeralQ's planning-estimate structure, city multipliers, available source notes, and known limitations.

NumeralQ generates localized cost estimates for 19 active service types across 147 U.S. markets. This page describes exactly how those estimates are produced — including the model structure, data sources, structural adjustments, and limitations. We have written this to be accurate and complete, not to be persuasive.

1. What the Model Does

Every NumeralQ estimate is produced by the same two-stage formula:

Formula (all services):
local_low = national_baseline_low × city_multiplier
local_high = national_baseline_high × city_multiplier

For square-foot-based services (roofing, siding, insulation, and deck & patio), the baseline is per square foot and is multiplied by a typical project square footage before the city multiplier is applied:

local_low = baseline_low_per_sqft × typical_sqft × city_multiplier

There are three formula variants, by service type:

  • Square-foot based (roofing, siding, insulation, deck & patio): national baseline per sq ft × typical project size × city multiplier.
  • Per-unit based (windows): national baseline per window × 12 (typical window count) × city multiplier.
  • Project-range based (HVAC, heat pumps, furnaces, solar panels, basement finishing, and others): a national project-dollar range × city multiplier.

2. National Baselines

Each service has a first-party NumeralQ planning baseline — a low and high value representing an assumed typical installed-cost range for a defined project scope. The repository does not document a completed annual review schedule. The scope/value examples below are not a complete inventory of all 19 active estimator services. Publication names are unlinked reference notes; they do not establish a direct source-to-range derivation or independent validation. Nine active services have a first-party published pricing record; 10 have no recorded external source URL or data vintage.

  • Roof replacement: $5.50–$9.00/sq ft installed. Scope: architectural asphalt shingle (mid-grade, 30-year) on a simple gable roof, complete tear-off of one layer, standard underlayment, and flashing. Sources: Remodeling Magazine Cost vs. Value 2024, NRCA Cost Report 2024.
  • Roof repair: $400–$2,500/project. Scope: typical localized repair (5–25 sq ft) including materials and labor. Source: NRCA 2024.
  • Siding replacement: $6.00–$10.00/sq ft. Scope: vinyl or fiber-cement siding, full replacement on a typical 1,500 sq ft wall area. Sources: Remodeling Magazine CvV 2024, JLC field guides.
  • Window replacement: $500–$1,500/window. Scope: double-hung, double-pane vinyl or fiberglass window, full-frame replacement, standard size. Sources: NWFA 2024, RSMeans 2023.
  • HVAC replacement: $7,000–$15,000/system. Scope: central split-system AC and air handler replacement (2–4 ton), in existing ductwork. Source: ACCA 2024.
  • Heat pump: $6,500–$18,000/system. Scope: air-source heat pump (2–4 ton) replacing existing system in existing ductwork. Sources: ACCA 2024, AHRI 2024.
  • Furnace replacement: $3,500–$9,000/system. Scope: standard-efficiency gas furnace (80% AFUE) in existing ductwork. Sources: ACCA 2024, RS Means Mechanical 2023.
  • Solar panels: $15,000–$30,000/system. Scope: 6–10 kW residential rooftop system, before federal tax credit. Sources: NREL 2024, Wood Mackenzie Q4 2023.
  • Deck: $22–$50/sq ft. Scope: composite deck, frame and boards, ledger, footings, hardware. Excludes railings, stairs, and permits. Sources: Remodeling Magazine CvV 2024, NADRA 2024.
  • Deck & patio (blended): $18–$45/sq ft. Scope: blended composite-deck and concrete-patio project, footings or slab, excludes cover structures. Sources: Remodeling Magazine CvV 2024, NADRA 2024.
  • Insulation: $1.25–$3.50/sq ft. Scope: blown-in fiberglass or cellulose to bring a 1,500 sq ft attic from R-19 to R-38, including air sealing. Sources: NAIMA 2024, DOE weatherization benchmarks.

Source limitation: The names above are not clickable citations and are not evidence that a displayed value was calculated from, or independently checked against, the named publication. The national ranges remain internal planning inputs until an exact source document, date, and value-level mapping is recorded.

Example: A typical 2,000 sq ft roof replacement has a national planning baseline of $5.50–$9.00/sq ft installed ($11,000–$18,000 total). In a city with a multiplier of 0.94, that becomes $10,340–$16,920. In a city with a multiplier of 1.24, it becomes $13,640–$22,320. These ranges represent planning-level guidance for a defined mid-grade scope.

3. City Market Multipliers

Each of NumeralQ's 147 city records stores one scalar multiplier. The estimator applies that value to the service's national planning baseline: 1.00 leaves the baseline unchanged, while 0.94 scales it down by about 6% and 1.24 scales it up by about 24%.

These multipliers are internal inputs, not measured local-price indexes. The repository does not document an external derivation formula, source vintage, calibration method, or completed refresh schedule for them. They should not be interpreted as observed contractor prices or as separate labor, material, permitting, or contractor-availability measurements.

4. Climate Types

Cities are assigned a climate type: hot and humid, hail zone, cold climate, desert, wet climate, hurricane zone, or standard. Climate type affects the qualitative guidance shown on each city page — material specifications, installation requirements, and risk factors. Climate type does not directly modify the price estimate. The city multiplier is the only variable that adjusts the dollar range.

5. What the Estimates Represent

NumeralQ estimates are planning-level cost ranges for typical project scopes in each city. They are intended to help homeowners:

  • Understand the rough order-of-magnitude cost before contacting contractors
  • Compare the estimate's stated scope with written bids, without treating the estimate as bid validation
  • Understand how their city's cost level compares to the national planning baseline

6. What the Estimates Do Not Represent

NumeralQ estimates are not:

  • Quotes or bids from contractors
  • Calibrated against a live transaction database or contractor survey data
  • Real-time or continuously updated prices. The repository does not document a completed annual review schedule for baselines or multipliers.
  • Decomposed into separate labor, material, and permit cost lines — the city multiplier is a single scalar applied to the total baseline range
  • Applicable to premium scopes (high-end custom materials, large-format projects, historic homes with special requirements)

7. Service Architecture Summary

The same city-level pricing formula applies to all 19 active service families with cost-range outputs: service-specific national baseline → city multiplier → displayed range. Some active service families also have state-level hubs. Solar production calculations and other non-cost outputs are outside this cost-range formula.

ServiceFormula TypeBaselineTypical Size
Roof ReplacementSquare-foot$5.50–$9.00/sq ft2,000 sq ft
Roof RepairProject range$400–$2,500Typical repair
Siding ReplacementSquare-foot$6.00–$10.00/sq ft1,500 sq ft
Window ReplacementPer unit$500–$1,500/window12 windows
HVAC ReplacementProject range$7,000–$15,000Typical system
Heat PumpProject range$6,500–$18,000Typical system
Furnace ReplacementProject range$3,500–$9,000Typical system
Solar PanelsProject range$15,000–$30,000Typical system
Deck & PatioSquare-foot$18–$45/sq ft600 sq ft
InsulationSquare-foot$1.25–$3.50/sq ft1,500 sq ft

8. Financing Payment Illustrations

Each project cost guide includes an optional financing payment illustration. These use a standard amortized payment formula applied to the project cost estimate at a stated loan term and APR range. They are illustrations only — not offers of credit, not pre-qualifications, and not representations of actual loan terms from any lender.

See our Financing Guide and Financing Disclosure for complete details.

9. Limitations — What Our Estimates Don't Cover

NumeralQ estimates are informed planning ranges, not quotes. They do not account for:

  • Unique home characteristics — unusual pitch, layout, access, age, or condition
  • Material availability and lead times at the time and place of your project
  • Individual contractor pricing based on their current workload, overhead, or market position
  • Hidden damage discovered during project execution (rotted decking, damaged framing)
  • High-end or custom finishes beyond the material grades defined in each service scope
  • Permit fee variation below the state level (city and county permit fees vary widely)
  • Market price movements after an undocumented baseline review
  • Projects that differ significantly from the defined scope (e.g., multi-layer tear-off, historic preservation requirements, seismic retrofits)
The right way to use NumeralQ estimates: Use these ranges as early planning context, not as a test of whether a contractor's price is plausible or fair. Compare written proposals for matching scope, materials, exclusions, warranties, permits, and site conditions, and ask for itemized explanations when they differ. Obtain multiple written bids from qualified local contractors before making a project decision.

10. Contractor Referral Support

When homeowners submit a quote request through NumeralQ, we help connect them with local contractors and home service professionals based on project type and location. NumeralQ is an independent home project intelligence and referral platform — we do not perform contracting work, employ contractors, guarantee contractor performance, or negotiate pricing on behalf of homeowners.

NumeralQ may work with contractors, financing providers, or third-party service platforms to facilitate homeowner project inquiries. Homeowners should independently verify current licensing through their state contractor licensing board, request proof of active general liability and workers' compensation insurance, and review references and contract terms before authorizing any work.

Questions About Our Data

If you have questions about specific estimates, the model, or anything on this page, reach out via our contact page. We are committed to accuracy and will do our best to explain any specific data point.